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Last Updated: 25/02/2025
Modeling to eliminate malaria in the Brazilian Amazon
Objectives
*Original title in Portuguese: Modelagem visando eliminação da malária na Amazônia brasileira
This project aims to develop a detailed model based on dynamic systems to describe the epidemiology of malaria in the Brazilian Amazon, where more than 99% of Brazilian cases of malaria are currently concentrated.
The modeling must be heavily based on historical information, experimental literature, consultation with clinical researchers and use of an extensive database of malaria incidence throughout Brazil, obtained via the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). Connecting with the main FAPESP PhD project, current modeling must be improved by using time series analysis methods in this database, together with meteorological time series such as temperature, precipitation and humidity. This could lead not only to a better model fit, but to a better selection of significant variables within it. In addition to gaining broad understanding and reproducibility of the disease dynamics so far, we must be able to simulate the effect of various intervention scenarios, evaluate their impact and present the best possible elimination strategy, specifically adapted to Brazilian circumstances.
Sep 2020 — Jun 2021
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