Modeling malaria commodity needs: diagnostics and drugs

Effective malaria case management necessitates that suspected malaria cases receive a confirmatory diagnostic test. Despite large-scale roll-out of rapid diagnostic tests across sub-Saharan Africa, evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of suspected malaria cases do not receive a confirmatory diagnostic test. This potentially leads to inappropriate clinical management, wastage of antimalarial drugs, and inaccuracy in routine case records. If rapid diagnostic testing rates increase, it will be important to understand rapid diagnostic test and antimalarial drug commodity needs – both under the current status quo and how the need would change under scenarios of expanded diagnostic use.

The Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) is working with national malaria programs and PMI in Uganda, Zambia, Mozambique, and Guinea to support improved country-level insight into malaria diagnostic and drug commodity requirements under a wide range of potential scenarios. This modeling activity aims to address the lack of information on current commodity needs and how these may be affected under future scenarios of changing care seeking, diagnostic access, and prescription practices. Working closely with country partners, MAP will produce bespoke, country-specific estimates and visualizations of (i) current malaria commodity needs (RDT, ACT) within their health systems reflecting current levels of febrile illness, care seeking, diagnostic use and drug prescription practices; and (ii) how these commodity needs would differ under different scenarios, including expanded diagnostic testing and changing compliance to test results.

Statistical modelling using data from national routine surveillance systems and population-based surveys to quantify the care-cascade for febrile illnesses in malaria-endemic countries, and subsequent consumption at point-of-care of RDTs and antimalarials.

Leadership & Governance
Modeling

Jun 2022 — Apr 2023

$261,795

Guinea
Mozambique
Uganda
Zambia

PMI Insights