Learning to Eliminate Dominant Malaria Vectors (Anopheles Africa II)

Understanding the ecological vulnerabilities of dominant malaria vector species is vital for combating malaria transmission, suppressing local populations of the vectors, and sustaining elimination. Specific interventions can be selected to target these vulnerabilities in ways that achieve sustainable control. There are already several examples of specific malaria vector species disappearing, either briefly or for several years from specific localities after deliberate interventions. These include the disappearance of An. funestus from
South Africa following DDT spraying, and from the Pare Taveta area in northern Tanzania in the 1950s and 60s following IRS with dieldrin. More recently, large declines and apparent disappearance of An. gambiae ss have been observed in some parts of East Africa following the scale-up of ITNs. Unfortunately, currently, there is no understanding of the inherent stability of dominant vector populations and their resilience to disturbance – whether arising through interventions, climate, other environmental changes, or their interactions. And neither the understanding of the full suite of factors (biological, environmental, or intervention-related) that might be responsible for the local disappearance of a vector species; or how we could accelerate such local “extinctions” to drastically reduce malaria transmission in other settings through strategic exploitation of similar driving factors.

It is therefore proposed to establish a multidisciplinary framework to examine the feasibility of targeting and eliminating certain predominant Anopheles species from specific localities. This framework will integrate entomological studies, quantitative ecology, mathematical/ statistical modeling, and anthropological studies. In addition to conducting targeted field studies, we aim to utilize long-term field-derived datasets on vector dynamics, behaviors, and life histories to understand both the drivers and indicators of vector population declines. These datasets will serve as the foundation for developing a comprehensive spatio-temporal model of vector population dynamics, which will be used to analyze the stability and vulnerabilities of key vector populations against perturbations associated with climate, land use, or deliberate vector control interventions, considering the probability of local species elimination as an outcome. 

The project will entail comprehensive data collection and extraction activities, including case studies (expert interviews), longitudinal data extraction, fine-scale entomological indicator collections, land use and climate variables in Tanzania, with additional data collection efforts undertaken in Mozambique and Kenya.

Basic Science
Vector Control

Nov 2023 — Oct 2026

$1.68M

Kenya
Mozambique
Tanzania