Developing a multiscale model combining both within-host and population level information to predict the emergence and spread of antimalarial resistance

In this project, we aim to develop a multiscale model integrating both malaria infection in individual human hosts (the within-host model) and transmission among the population (the transmission model). While constructing the transmission model, we will apply the model to preliminarily investigate the artemisinin resistance in Myanmar as a case study. We aim to establish a platform that can identify the key factors in determining the establishment of drug resistance in a population, examine/explain historical data and apply the model (with parameters estimated from data from a specific certain country/region) to predict when and where the resistance is likely to emerge and spread and what are the optimal strategies of intervention.

The development of the multiscale model will take two stages: the first is developing a withinhost model based on experimental and clinical data; the second stage is developing a transmission model (incorporating the within-host model) based on epidemiological data from either our collaborators or the literature (we will look at Myanmar’s artemisinin resistance as a case study to test our model’s feasibility).

Modeling
Surveillance

Aug 2018 — Oct 2023

$15,000

Australia

Australian Centre for Research Excellence in Malaria Elimination (ACREME)