Climate change and malaria: how to prepare for the radical reconfiguration of the epidemic?

Malaria is one of the most climate-sensitive diseases. Indeed, changes in temperature and rainfall patterns significantly affect the seasonality of vector transmission, density, distribution and behavioural traits. They also widely redefine the perimeter of malaria-endemic areas. Local factors, such as the characteristics of the various species of mosquito, the immunity of infected persons, population movements, parasite drug resistance, and environmental changes (land use, for example) are also key to understanding the potential impact of climate change on malaria epidemiology. Mathematical models help outline scenarios and devise measures that can mitigate its impact. But without an operational translation of these models into coherent public health policies, the preparation for future changes (pandemic preparedness) could be seriously undermined. The objective of this policy paper is to summarise some of the trends emerging from the different models, and provide some keys to maximise their scope of interpretation.