Investigation of the effect of climatic and landscape variations on the vectors and spatial and temporal dynamics of wild yellow fever and autochthonous malaria in fragments of the Atlantic Forest in the state of São Paulo

The most recent outbreak of wild yellow fever (YF) has caused a significant number of human cases and epizootics in non-human primates (NHP) in the Atlantic Forest region of southeastern Brazil, including notifications in populated areas previously considered free of the disease. In these areas, malaria plasmodia also circulate between PNH and humans and, like the YF virus, are transmitted between hosts mainly by vectors with wild habits. Entomological collections will be carried out in places with a history of malaria and where there has been recent YF viral activity. Landscape composition, configuration and connectivity metrics will be measured and the predictive relationship between these variables with the occurrence of human cases, epizootics in PNH and the presence, abundance and natural infectivity of mosquitoes of the genera Haemagogus, Sabethes, Aedes, Psorophora and Anopheles will be investigated. The effect of regional climatic and phytophysiognomic variations on the richness, composition and abundance of YF and malaria vectors will be investigated, comparing areas along a strip comprising the Serra da Mantiqueira, the Vale do Paraíba, the Paraitinga/Paraibuna Plateau and the Serra do Mar on the North Coast of the state. Agent-based computational models will be developed to test hypotheses and predict the transmission and dispersal behavior of wild YF and indigenous malaria in the study areas. These models will be integrated into a Geographic Information System, allowing the simulation of transmission dynamics over an explicit representation of the physical environment. The aim is to generate information that serves as support for determining priority areas for surveillance and allocation of resources in campaigns to prevent and control these zoonoses.

Project details

Measurement of Transmission
Vector Control

Feb 2024 — Jan 2026

Brazil