Malaria in Oeiras do Pará: Risk factors and spatial analysis

The Pará municipalities of Cametá and Oeiras do Pará are considered a priority in terms of malaria control and surveillance actions in Brazil, as they maintain active transmission of the disease over the years without an effective and sustainable resolution. In view of this, a careful analysis of the intervening factors in the local transmission of malaria is essential to promote a better understanding of the epidemiological dynamics of the disease in the region and thus enable the adoption of strategic resolving measures. For this, the cleaning and analysis of the data of the participants previously inserted in the database will be carried out through the SAS program, version 9.4. The analysis of the density and spatial and temporal distribution of the frequency of malaria cases in the areas studied will be performed using the SaTScan 7.0.3 program to verify the dispersion and randomization of cases, in order to allow the evaluation of the statistical significance of the clusters found . Cox regression model (forward multivariate analysis) will be used for correlation analysis of covariates. The value of p ≤ 0.05 will be considered statistically significant. For the inclusion of covariates in the multivariate analysis, a value of p ≤ 0.02 will be considered. The association of spatial and temporal analysis of malaria cases with the identification and analysis of risk factors related to acquiring the disease should contribute to scientific knowledge about the causes that promote and/or enhance the risk of contracting the disease in the region studied. In this way, control interventions can be targeted according to local needs, as more sensitive risk prioritization tools will be adopted, which will help to intensify strategic actions for areas with the greatest impact on malaria transmission, in addition to being related to the health condition of individuals and the local population. This product should still serve as a methodological model for spatiotemporal mapping of other diseases and assessment of epidemiological scenarios, with the aim of collaborating with the planning of public health actions and the assessment of primary care networks. Thus, this delivery should contribute to the construction of technical guidelines and health policies based on evidence, which seek the synergy of factors to strengthen the Unified Health System (SUS).

Project details

Epidemiology
Surveillance

Jan 2021

Brazil